Russia and Ukraine

[arewethereyet]

Awww...did the big, bad Nudge scare off the piss ant IA?

Bummer.

[The Grand Nudger]

I doubt I had much to do with it. These loons are constantly surprised by their own idiocy and that's why they fuck off when they do. Just a few posts back IA was saying what..that russia would do something, bigly, if ukraine hit the kremlin. Like what...invade ukraine?

[Fireball]

I doubt I had much to do with it.  These loons are constantly surprised by their own idiocy and that's why they fuck off when they do.  Just a few posts back IA was saying what..that russia would do something, bigly, if ukraine hit the kremlin.  Like what...invade ukraine?

I hope it isn't a setup for nukes. I'd like to think that the specter of nukes is enough deter their use, but I'm seeing a lot of crazy in the world today.

[The Grand Nudger]

I think the only thing that's been standing between russia and nuclear weapons in ukraine has been a credible fear of bungling it in the attempt.

[The Architect Of Fate]

So let's tear apart our local Kremlin Gremlin excuses shall we

1. Ukraine is still winning and Russia are still idiots who have botched this invasion in every way they could.


2. Ukraine doesn't have to negotiate or give i single inch of its land to Russia and there is no Pro Russian Ukraine there are territories Russia stole from Ukraine and then tried to validate in a sham election where people "voted" at gunpoint. 


3. As for the Drone attack it's either a false flag or even if it isn't maybe there is nothing wrong with Russia getting a taste of its own medicine. And we will not be reconsidering sending weapons nor should we. 


4. China is irrelevant they are all bark and no bite. 


So these "papers" change nothing.

[Leonardo17]

The article points out that the problem is not actually the -task- of cleaning up or lengthening runways - or a "problem with the f-16".  Monkeys can do this.  It's that it would be highly visible, and so present a clear target for russian strikes.

It would make sense, truly, if russia hasn;t always had clear targets within reach and opted to shell apartment complexes and hospitals and schools, instead.  I doubt there would even be a ukrainian force left to go begging for f16s if they'd dropped all of that on the heads of the actual forces, logistics hubs, and production centers that ukr relies on.  I get why russia is fucking up this way, because some criminal back in moscow has dibs on the facilities and gear..but it seems like a particularly good way to lose a war to me.

Another factor is that the F-16’s are virtually defenseless toward Russian SAM batteries. One retired pilot says that “They don’t even have a fighting chance”
 
Yet some are relativizing this point of view by saying that the training of Ukrainian Pilots who know how to operate Soviet-Era fighter jets would only take 2 to 6 months and that the F-16 would provide to the Ukrainians some of the capacities they need:
 
www.yahoo.com/news/us-supply-f-16-fighter-142118992.html
 
Also the problem with the fleet of the USAF is that it is rapidly aging and is losing its advantage toward the PLA Airforce which has a rapidly growing fleet of J-20’s with underground bunkers in mainland China that will protect these planes from US + Allies missile barrages.
 
So one approach could be to deliver these to Ukraine / Taiwan + other countries in need while switching to F-35’s + the next-next generation fighter that is set to make its appearance in the 2030’s.
 
If I am reading this correctly China is set to become a formidable military adversary in the next decade. 

[Leonardo17]

So first we got the Pentagon papers that show Ukraine has no choice but to negotiate because they will run out of soldiers, and China is actually willing to arm Russia, and now someone is trying to drone strike the Kremlin? Zelensky or someone else or false flag, I do not know, but if this was Zelensky, giving him weapons was far dumber than arming Al Qaeda and ISIS as Zelensky is the greater threat to the planet.

These “leaks” are said to be modified as they are being spread through news outlets and social media. Many facts are being distorted so I chose to stick on what I really know and discard everything that could potentially be false information

[Leonardo17]

Did someone make you come back?

Do you have a remark about Russia Ukraine, or are you just going to keep posting off topic personal attacks and dragging the thread down into the mud? Another case where the moderator gets to break all the rules, while I'm accused by an admin of posting hate speech and slurs against trans people, with no evidence that I did any such thing, and no pointing me out to any such quote that was written by me. A blatant lie. Rules for thee. Not for me. Just a tip. In the OP of the trans thread, please let posters know that it is basically an upset wife thread, meaning, "I don't want your input on the problem or a solution on how to improve the things I'm talking about. I just want to be heard and agreed with and a shoulder to cry on." If that's what you wanted the thread to be, you should have made that clearer. I remember a time when atheists were proud of the label free-thinker and we actually had discussions about things.

So, what are your thoughts on the Pentagon papers and the drone that was blown up over the Kremlin? You thinking false flag? Have any thoughts on the actual topic of the thread? Or is turning the conversation into a petty attack on me more important to you than discussing a major world event, and the implications of that major world event, that just happened?

This is not going to look serious but: Where did (the offenders) even get this drone? It really looks like those flying helicopters from my childhood being shot down with some ordinary fire crackers.
 
+ Russian air defenses are really good. So everyone agrees that even a good drone could not get this far into Russian territory (especially in Moscow).
 
So my worry at this point is no longer about Russia being able to do anything it hasn’t already done. I’m worried about the collapse of a still great western power and China filling all that gap and turning into a new super-monster. I see this as a huge problem in a time when we should be more focused on our energy transition.  

[Leonardo17]

I doubt I had much to do with it.  These loons are constantly surprised by their own idiocy and that's why they fuck off when they do.  Just a few posts back IA was saying what..that russia would do something, bigly, if ukraine hit the kremlin.  Like what...invade ukraine?

I hope it isn't a setup for nukes. I'd like to think that the specter of nukes is enough deter their use, but I'm seeing a lot of crazy in the world today.

- These nukes are a huge problem. Not that Putin is ever going to use them. But China is said to be ramping up its nuclear arsenal. And I don’t think this should be happening. We should be now thinking on issues like: “What if China collapses at some time in the future and turns into something like today’s Russia?”  
 
SO I think they should be some negotiations on that. I think no new nuclear weapon should be built anywhere in the world today. We need something like the Reagan – Gorbatchev Negotiations of the 1980’s to happen between the collective West and China today.

[Thumpalumpacus]

So first we got the Pentagon papers that show Ukraine has no choice but to negotiate because they will run out of soldiers, and China is actually willing to arm Russia, and now someone is trying to drone strike the Kremlin? Zelensky or someone else or false flag, I do not know, but if this was Zelensky, giving him weapons was far dumber than arming Al Qaeda and ISIS as Zelensky is the greater threat to the planet.

It's a false-flag. Either that, or you need to believe that not one but two people just happened to be taking cell-phone footage of the Kremlin ... between 2:30 and 3:00 AM local time. How lucky the Russians were to get a video record of it!

Here's what the ISW has to write about this nonsense:

Russia likely staged this attack in an attempt to bring the war home to a Russian domestic audience and set conditions for a wider societal mobilization. Several indicators suggest that the strike was internally conducted and purposefully staged. Russian authorities have recently taken steps to increase Russian domestic air defense capabilities, including within Moscow itself, and it is therefore extremely unlikely that two drones could have penetrated multiple layers of air defense and detonated or been shot down just over the heart of the Kremlin in a way that provided spectacular imagery caught nicely on camera. Geolocated imagery from January 2023 shows that Russian authorities have been placing Pantsir air defense systems near Moscow to create air defense circles around the city.[4] A strike that avoided detection and destruction by such air defense assets and succeeded in hitting as high-profile of a target as the Kremlin Senate Palace would be a significant embarrassment for Russia. The Kremlin’s immediate, coherent, and coordinated response to the incident suggests that the attack was internally prepared in such a way that its intended political effects outweigh its embarrassment. The Kremlin immediately accused Ukraine of conducting a terror attack, and Russian official responses coalesced rapidly around this accusation.[5] If the drone attack had not been internally staged it would have been a surprise event. It is very likely that the official Russian response would initially have been much more disorganized as Russian officials scrambled to generate a coherent narrative and offset the rhetorical implications of a clear informational embarrassment. The Kremlin has notably failed to generate a timely and coherent informational response to other military humiliations not of its own making, including the falls of Balakliya and Kherson City in September and November 2022.[6]

The rapid and coherent presentation of an official Russian narrative around the strike suggests that Russia staged this incident in close proximity to the May 9th Victory Day holiday in order to frame the war as existential to its domestic audience. The Kremlin may use the strike to justify either canceling or further limiting May 9th celebrations, actions that would likely augment the information effort framing the war in Ukraine as directly threatening Russian observance of revered historical events. ISW has previously assessed that Russia is employing an array of measures to frame the war in Ukraine as existential to Russia’s domestic audience and to prepare for wider societal mobilization.[7]

https://www.understandingwar.org/backgro...ct-updates