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October 18, 2023 at 9:56 pm (This post was last modified: October 18, 2023 at 9:58 pm by Anomalocaris.)
Russia and China has long and deep historic grievances. Dictators who secure their own grasp on power by fanning ethnic and xenophobic feelings are unlikely to be able to bury ethic grievances, much less trust each other to bury their grievances. So mutual suspicion and awareness that the end of any partnership is but one backstab away will keep them from becoming closely collaborating Allie’s. So however Much kinship they might appear to have through their modes of governance and whatever strategic interest they may appear to share, their very forms of government makes it unlikely for Russia and China to ever become close coordinating partners. Their partnership might be more similar to those between germany and Japan than those between the Allie’s, but with rather less collabration because German and Japan didn’t have mutual territorial disputes.
I don’t know which movie it was. Someone was talking about Nazi Germany and said that “One does not fight the USA and Russia at two fronts. One has to bring the USA and Russia to fight one another”. I think this is what China just did in a very successful manner. Without that, even with all their economic growth etc. China would have been able to become a real challenge for the West. Now there will be a Soviet Union 2.0 there and the world will have to live with it. 2) If Israel + the US moves on Iran (and I would not be among those who cry for days if something like that really happened), China will probably move on Taiwan in the Pacific. Yet, ad country of 1,5 Billion inhabitants is always a puzzle. So these are just my own personal ideas
October 30, 2023 at 3:59 pm (This post was last modified: October 30, 2023 at 4:00 pm by The Grand Nudger.)
Chinese leadership would have to be smoking the same meth that russian leadership has been on if they think they're going to pull off an invasion. Taiwan is much better defended than Ukraine was and china is less militarily capable than russia. It's unclear why china would even want a damaged taiwan.
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(October 30, 2023 at 3:59 pm)The Grand Nudger Wrote: Chinese leadership would have to be smoking the same meth that russian leadership has been on if they think they're going to pull off an invasion. Taiwan is much better defended than Ukraine was and china is less militarily capable than russia. It's unclear why china would even want a damaged taiwan.
Killing the goose that lays Rhodium eggs would be extremely bad form, to say the least.
If you get to thinking you’re a person of some influence, try ordering somebody else’s dog around.
(October 30, 2023 at 2:45 pm)Leonardo17 Wrote: I don’t know which movie it was. Someone was talking about Nazi Germany and said that “One does not fight the USA and Russia at two fronts. One has to bring the USA and Russia to fight one another”. I think this is what China just did in a very successful manner. Without that, even with all their economic growth etc. China would have been able to become a real challenge for the West. Now there will be a Soviet Union 2.0 there and the world will have to live with it. 2) If Israel + the US moves on Iran (and I would not be among those who cry for days if something like that really happened), China will probably move on Taiwan in the Pacific. Yet, ad country of 1,5 Billion inhabitants is always a puzzle. So these are just my own personal ideas
I disagree with this reading. China has certainly drawn Russia into its economic orbit, but Russia's invasion has made the Western world take serious note of the dangers posed by the world's autocracies, leading to greater support for Taiwan. It's also made other nations very cautious of the Belt and Road Initiative. When combined with their economic downturn and the need to increase their military budget, the Chinese situation is probably not nearly so strong as it was 18 months ago, imo.
(October 30, 2023 at 3:59 pm)The Grand Nudger Wrote: Chinese leadership would have to be smoking the same meth that russian leadership has been on if they think they're going to pull off an invasion. Taiwan is much better defended than Ukraine was and china is less militarily capable than russia. It's unclear why china would even want a damaged taiwan.
The People’s Liberation Army is a much fiercer opponent. They are already the N-1 fleet in the world. Their Chengdu J-20 are similar to NATO F-35’s. And the rest of their equipment and army is very modern too.
China can still not move onto Taiwan any time soon. And (you are right) they wouldn’t want that either. If only the microprocessor industry in Taiwan is hit, this will cripple all of their major industries as well.
Many Western Companies are moving out while they can. And they will probably not repeat the mistake in India. Because much of the know-how of western companies has already been transferred to the Chinese. Now (for instance) they have the cheapest and most effective Electric cars to invade European markets (And the EU is protecting itself by pointing out to the fact that these cars are too heavily subsidized by the Chinese Government).
They are also investing very heavily on AI technologies. And they also have this vision of “world domination by 2025”. So if the US was to become busy fighting a war with Iran (before the end of the war in Ukraine) Xi could be tempted to make a move on Taiwan. Similarly, they may be waiting for some sort of mismanagement in the West to compete more decisively with the West in many key sectors (like AI for instance).
But I’m still counting on the rational fabric of their society. I think, they would not act like a destabilizing element in the world like Russia did for so many years. So I’m always in favor of all sorts of diplomatic efforts and enhanced dialogue toward that country.
(November 28, 2023 at 11:42 am)Leonardo17 Wrote: The People’s Liberation Army is a much fiercer opponent. They are already the N-1 fleet in the world. Their Chengdu J-20 are similar to NATO F-35’s. And the rest of their equipment and army is very modern too.
China can still not move onto Taiwan any time soon. And (you are right) they wouldn’t want that either. If only the microprocessor industry in Taiwan is hit, this will cripple all of their major industries as well.
Many Western Companies are moving out while they can. And they will probably not repeat the mistake in India. Because much of the know-how of western companies has already been transferred to the Chinese. Now (for instance) they have the cheapest and most effective Electric cars to invade European markets (And the EU is protecting itself by pointing out to the fact that these cars are too heavily subsidized by the Chinese Government).
They are also investing very heavily on AI technologies. And they also have this vision of “world domination by 2025”. So if the US was to become busy fighting a war with Iran (before the end of the war in Ukraine) Xi could be tempted to make a move on Taiwan. Similarly, they may be waiting for some sort of mismanagement in the West to compete more decisively with the West in many key sectors (like AI for instance).
But I’m still counting on the rational fabric of their society. I think, they would not act like a destabilizing element in the world like Russia did for so many years. So I’m always in favor of all sorts of diplomatic efforts and enhanced dialogue toward that country.
The PLA "fierce"? What combat experience do they have to justify that description? Granted that the Taiwanese army is equally inexperienced, they're still sitting onshore while the inexperienced PLA is attempting the most difficult of operations, a seaborne amphibious invasion.
That said, diplomacy is indeed preferable, so long as it isn't appeasement.
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