Malaysian airlines plane shot down over Ukraine

[Anomalocaris]

[Nine]

I smell a war coming.

Or far more likely, some more puffed up chests and stern words traded. I think there is just too much of a potential clusterfuck for either side.

@chuck:

I imagine well find out soon. A few of Ukraine military aircraft have been taken down. Were also amusing it was shot down, it could just be an accident at the wrong place and wrong time. Seems a bit coincidental but reality is we know nothing yet.

[Napoléon]

I will not reflexively point the finger at Russia. It is not clear to me how this could benefit Russia. There are all sorts of things Russia could do to provoke another crisis in Ukraine without so blantantly blackening its own name by shooting down a third, neutural, country's passenger liner.

It's far more likely to be Russia IMO. The Ukrainian's only have a handful of BUK missiles and to my knowledge aren't really known to have used them that much whereas the Russians have a veritable arsenal of them.

Also, the passenger plane was approaching Russian airspace from the west. It had already flown over Ukrainian airspace for quite some time, it seems more likely to me that the Russian's would have seen this aircraft approaching from Ukrainian airspace, and they've obviously failed to identify it. They've then made the bizarre decision to simply shoot it down after failing to identify it. Seems the most likely outcome to me but I'm no expert.

[Anomalocaris]

I will not reflexively point the finger at Russia. It is not clear to me how this could benefit Russia. There are all sorts of things Russia could do to provoke another crisis in Ukraine without so blantantly blackening its own name by shooting down a third, neutural, country's passenger liner.

It's far more likely to be Russia IMO. The Ukrainian's only have a handful of BUK missiles and to my knowledge aren't really known to have used them that much whereas the Russians have a veritable arsenal of them.

Also, the passenger plane was approaching Russian airspace from the west. It had already flown over Ukrainian airspace for quite some time, it seems more likely to me that the Russian's would have seen this aircraft approaching from Ukrainian airspace, and they've obviously failed to identify it. They've then made the bizarre decision to simply shoot it down after failing to identify it. Seems the most likely outcome to me but I'm no expert.

Russia has total air supremacy. I see no reason why Russia would need to be worried about high level air threats from Ukraine such that it would be trigger happy. Ukraine, on the other hand, has incentive to be trigger happy because Russian air assets would likely enjoy otherwise near uncontested control of air space in Ukraine in case of conflict.

Also, Ukrainian command, communication and control was probably never very efficient, and it is probably still in a state of added confusion due to defection of pro-Russian officers and men. it appears Russian army and air defence force's training, command, control and communication would operate at level considerably above what Ukraine demonstrated. I think it is more likely for Ukraine to fail to identify the aircraft at local or central level than is for Russia, and it is also more likely for Ukraine to failed to pass the identification of the aircraft from one command to another, and thus creating the situation where a single command takes it upon itself to shoot down the bogey than it would be the case for Russia.

[pocaracas]

So.... I must have missed the part where we have footage of the missile striking the plane...

Could it have been a malfunction?

[Anomalocaris]

The claim that a missile brought down the plane was made by the Ukrainian government. They even identified the type of missile involved.

It seems possible the plane went down due to mechanical failure. But it is probably unusual for this to happen without a mayday from the aircraft. In any case, a missile warhead mostly kill by sending interconnected steel shrapnels to cut up the aluminum plane structure. Evidence of shrapnel damage on the aircraft would be easily distinguished from other times of in-air or crash damage, and would point unambigiously towards the plane having been blown up by a missile warhead.

[Minimalist]

it seems more likely to me that the Russian's would have seen this aircraft approaching from Ukrainian airspace, and they've obviously failed to identify it.

I remember when they sent up a MiG to identify a Korean airliner, did so, and shot it down anyway.

Fuckers have a track record.

[Fidel_Castronaut]

The Media appears to be siding with the idea that it was the russians (nothing to read into there without evidence).

The separatists are incredibly well armed being effectively an extension of the Russian army. They've also shot down a number of Ukrainian air craft over recent days and weeks. A rebel commander supposedly posted a twitter message today saying they'd shot an aircraft down, but it was deleted soon after:

All speculation though. Just hope that something can be found out before either side dominates the site and could be accused of removing the evidence.

[Minimalist]

How long until the republicunts blame Obama for this incident?

[Anomalocaris]