Malaysian airlines plane shot down over Ukraine

[Anomalocaris]

It is alledged the weapon that brought down the plane is a Buk missile, which is a medium range weapon system that requires separate radar trucks, transport erector lunacher vehicles, auxiliary power supply vehicles, etc to operate. It's not a shoulder fired missile. It's a air defence system. This is not the sort of system a bunch of bandits on the run is likely to be able to operate. It is something used by technically sophisticated army units. This suggests to me it is at least as likely as not the real culprit is the Ukrainian army, or the Russian army, rather than the separatists.

This would not be the first time the Ukrainian army fired a sophisticated air defence system at an airliner by accident. It happened before when the Ukrainians shot down by accident a Siberian airline Tu-154 not long after 9/11

I will not reflexively point the finger at Russia. It is not clear to me how this could benefit Russia. There are all sorts of things Russia could do to provoke another crisis in Ukraine without so blantantly blackening its own name by shooting down a third, neutural, country's passenger liner.

[Nine]

I smell a war coming.

Or far more likely, some more puffed up chests and stern words traded. I think there is just too much of a potential clusterfuck for either side.

@chuck:

I imagine well find out soon. A few of Ukraine military aircraft have been taken down. Were also amusing it was shot down, it could just be an accident at the wrong place and wrong time. Seems a bit coincidental but reality is we know nothing yet.

[Napoléon]

I will not reflexively point the finger at Russia. It is not clear to me how this could benefit Russia. There are all sorts of things Russia could do to provoke another crisis in Ukraine without so blantantly blackening its own name by shooting down a third, neutural, country's passenger liner.

It's far more likely to be Russia IMO. The Ukrainian's only have a handful of BUK missiles and to my knowledge aren't really known to have used them that much whereas the Russians have a veritable arsenal of them.

Also, the passenger plane was approaching Russian airspace from the west. It had already flown over Ukrainian airspace for quite some time, it seems more likely to me that the Russian's would have seen this aircraft approaching from Ukrainian airspace, and they've obviously failed to identify it. They've then made the bizarre decision to simply shoot it down after failing to identify it. Seems the most likely outcome to me but I'm no expert.

[Anomalocaris]

I will not reflexively point the finger at Russia. It is not clear to me how this could benefit Russia. There are all sorts of things Russia could do to provoke another crisis in Ukraine without so blantantly blackening its own name by shooting down a third, neutural, country's passenger liner.

It's far more likely to be Russia IMO. The Ukrainian's only have a handful of BUK missiles and to my knowledge aren't really known to have used them that much whereas the Russians have a veritable arsenal of them.

Also, the passenger plane was approaching Russian airspace from the west. It had already flown over Ukrainian airspace for quite some time, it seems more likely to me that the Russian's would have seen this aircraft approaching from Ukrainian airspace, and they've obviously failed to identify it. They've then made the bizarre decision to simply shoot it down after failing to identify it. Seems the most likely outcome to me but I'm no expert.

Russia has total air supremacy. I see no reason why Russia would need to be worried about high level air threats from Ukraine such that it would be trigger happy. Ukraine, on the other hand, has incentive to be trigger happy because Russian air assets would likely enjoy otherwise near uncontested control of air space in Ukraine in case of conflict.

Also, Ukrainian command, communication and control was probably never very efficient, and it is probably still in a state of added confusion due to defection of pro-Russian officers and men. it appears Russian army and air defence force's training, command, control and communication would operate at level considerably above what Ukraine demonstrated. I think it is more likely for Ukraine to fail to identify the aircraft at local or central level than is for Russia, and it is also more likely for Ukraine to failed to pass the identification of the aircraft from one command to another, and thus creating the situation where a single command takes it upon itself to shoot down the bogey than it would be the case for Russia.

[pocaracas]

So.... I must have missed the part where we have footage of the missile striking the plane...

Could it have been a malfunction?

[Anomalocaris]

The claim that a missile brought down the plane was made by the Ukrainian government. They even identified the type of missile involved.

It seems possible the plane went down due to mechanical failure. But it is probably unusual for this to happen without a mayday from the aircraft. In any case, a missile warhead mostly kill by sending interconnected steel shrapnels to cut up the aluminum plane structure. Evidence of shrapnel damage on the aircraft would be easily distinguished from other times of in-air or crash damage, and would point unambigiously towards the plane having been blown up by a missile warhead.

[Minimalist]

it seems more likely to me that the Russian's would have seen this aircraft approaching from Ukrainian airspace, and they've obviously failed to identify it.

I remember when they sent up a MiG to identify a Korean airliner, did so, and shot it down anyway.

Fuckers have a track record.

[Fidel_Castronaut]

The Media appears to be siding with the idea that it was the russians (nothing to read into there without evidence).

The separatists are incredibly well armed being effectively an extension of the Russian army. They've also shot down a number of Ukrainian air craft over recent days and weeks. A rebel commander supposedly posted a twitter message today saying they'd shot an aircraft down, but it was deleted soon after:

All speculation though. Just hope that something can be found out before either side dominates the site and could be accused of removing the evidence.

[Minimalist]

How long until the republicunts blame Obama for this incident?

[Anomalocaris]

How long until the republicunts blame Obama for this incident?

Before the attack even happened. Maybe one day republicans finally get around to accuse Obama of that most monsterous crime of all - allowing members of the republican party to continue to squander oxygen.

---

it seems more likely to me that the Russian's would have seen this aircraft approaching from Ukrainian airspace, and they've obviously failed to identify it.

I remember when they sent up a MiG to identify a Korean airliner, did so, and shot it down anyway.

Fuckers have a track record.

Actually, the case is not so black and white.

Two things the US white washed in the Korea Air 007 incident are:

1. Just before the Korean air 007 incident Reagan directed the USN to put pressure on the Soviet Union by conducting a highly provacative exercise, called FleetEX83, right off Soviet Kamchatka peninsula. Several flights of armed F-14 intentionally violated Soviet airspace and flew at low altitude across the Kurile Islands, over Soviet bases. The Soviet far eastern air defence command was purged in response to this, and the replacement commander of Soviet far eastern air defence, Colonel general Kamensky, was told his career depended on shooting down the next American aircraft that violate the Soviet air space in the far east. It was against this backdrop that flight 007 penetrated into Soviet airspace above Kamchatka Peninsula.

2. There are international laws against sending armed military aircraft into foreign air spaces without permission. There is actually no international law that prevents a nation from shooting down an intruding passenger aircraft if the passenger aircraft completely ignores all attempts at contact, even if the passenger aircraft is positively identified. The Isrealis shot down a positively identified Lybian Arab Airline flight 114 in 1973, and the west went out of their way to not blame Isreal.

As it happened, the Soviet Union did not in fact positively identify Korean Air 007 as was clear from intercepted transmissions, and believed it was really a military aircraft on account of the fact that flight 007 appeared from their traces to have invaded Soviet air space twice, the first time it appear to have changed course and left soviet airspace to avoid interception, and then change course again to re-enter soviet airspace after the pursuit aircraft turned back.
In fact, the US published transcripts of intercepted Soviet communications between senior commanders. One general argued the plane should not be shot down unless it is positively identified as non-civilian. The other argued the plane is evidently military based on what it had done, and therefore no further identication is needed before it can be shot down. The pilot who actually shot down the Korean air nontheless went through all the internationally recognized steps to attempt to contact Korean air, including firing warning tracers. For unknown reasons Korean air 007 never responded in any way to the Soviet attempt at communication. Korean Air 007 also changed speed and altitude in a way that cause the Soviet pilot to believe it was trying actively to evade him.

It was in this situation, when Korean airline 007 was about to leave Soviet air space again, and Colonel general Kamenskys career being on the line if the plane turned out to really be american and not shot down, that Korean Airline 007 was ordered shot down.

I think the general consensus now is Soviet Union did not infact violate any international law, and in fact did not act with any unusual neglect or criminal triggerhappiness in the Korean air 007 incident. It was really a accident. The US by violating Soviet airspace in the same area with armed military aircraft many times in the weeks prior to the incident had not acted with complete blamelessness in facilitating the accident.

The US simply far, far outplayed the Soviets in the international public relations game in the aftermath of the incident.

The Soviets in shooting down the Korean Air 007 were no more blameworthy than the Israelis in shooting down the Lybian air 114 9 years earlier. But the US chose to acuse one and defend the other.