Impeachment Vote Predictions

[onlinebiker]

Just for fun - let's see who can make the closest prediction to the actual outcome.

By party
( D ) 45 Convict
( R ) 49 Acquit 4 Convict
( I ) 2 Convict

You get bonus points if predicting by party.

[BrianSoddingBoru4]

I'm not entirely convinced it'll ever reach the convict/acquit stage.  If it looks like a vote to call witnesses will get through, I think Republicans will panic and vote to dismiss the articles.  That being said, I think your prediction is pretty spot-on. All that's likely to change it is if some mutagenic, spine-growing virus sweeps the Republican party.

Boru

[Hillbillyatheist]

( D ) 2 Acquit 43 Convict
( R ) 50 Acquit 3 Convict
( I ) 2 Convict

kirsten sinima and joe manchin appear likely to acquit from what I'm seeing. meanwhile Mitt Romney Romney, Susan Collins, Lisa Murkowski will likely vote to convict. Doug jones of alabama may also acquit, to try and keep his seat, and I read something that says Diane Feinstein may acquit too, which shocks me to be honest and I am skeptical of that panning out.

being below 67 means trump walks.

[Brian37]

Nothing to predict. The GOP are a party of sycophants and will protect the fucker regardless of the fact he is a fraud, bully and a con.

[onlinebiker]

Nothing to predict. The GOP are a party of sycophants and will protect the fucker regardless of the fact he is a fraud, bully and a con.

Whereas the Dems would NEVER protect a womanizing liar....

Right?

[Brian37]

Nothing to predict. The GOP are a party of sycophants and will protect the fucker regardless of the fact he is a fraud, bully and a con.

Whereas the Dems would NEVER protect a womanizing liar....

Right?

Really, you want to make this a stats game?

Ok,

Bill Clinton, = One consensual blowjob.

Trump, = Had affairs on all 3 of his wives including a porn star and Playboy model.

But only one of them sold out his country to a foreign government. Even Nixon had the decency to keep his crime local, and admit he was wrong when caught.

Hey dumbass, this isn't even about sex, jackass. This is about NATIONAL SECURITY. So much so, even before the orange turd took office, 50, let me REPEAT, 50 FORMER REPUBLICAN INTEL AGENTS warned America not to elect the fucker during his run.

Don't hand me any fucking bullshit, that if Obama had been impeached on the same articles the GOP would not want his hide. Now, name me how many affairs Obama has had, or how many of his administration were indicted, investigated and convicted.

This isn't even about affairs. This is about a crybaby bully trust fund brat who has been a fucking con his entire life whose dad never taught him what consequences were.

[onlinebiker]

Whereas the Dems would NEVER protect a womanizing liar....

Right?

Really, you want to make this a stats game?

Ok,

Bill Clinton, = One consensual blowjob.

Trump, = Had affairs on all 3 of his wives including a porn star and Playboy model.

But only one of them sold out his country to a foreign government. Even Nixon had the decency to keep his crime local, and admit he was wrong when caught.

Hey dumbass, this isn't even about sex, jackass. This is about NATIONAL SECURITY. So much so, even before the orange turd took office, 50, let me REPEAT, 50 FORMER REPUBLICAN INTEL AGENTS warned America not to elect the fucker during his run.

Don't hand me any fucking bullshit, that if Obama had been impeached on the same articles the GOP would not want his hide. Now, name me how many affairs Obama has had, or how many of his administration were indicted, investigated and convicted.

This isn't even about affairs. This is about a crybaby bully trust fund brat who has been a fucking con his entire life whose dad never taught him what consequences were.

TLDR.

but we will assume it' s your usual longwinded diatribe .... 


But I'll bet you went on about Clitoon (although I didn't mention him.... I could just as easily been talking about Qualme Kilpatrick.....)

And I'll bet you thought it was A-OK for Slick Willy to bang the help --- something that would put most employers in jail or at least bankruptcy.....

We decided some time ago in this society that it's decidedly uncool to use your personal power to fuck the help.... It's a form of coersion......

Unless it's "your guy".

Then it's "consensual".

[Brian37]

Yep, keep it up. What's next, you going to set up a folding card table on the Vegas sidewalk and get me to guess which card, or ball and cup trick to place bets on?

I was born at night, just not last night. Trump is a fucking insecure trust fund con, fraud and bully. He simply doesn't like being held responsible for his actions. Unfortunately at this point in history, he has plenty of ass kissers to protect him.

[Rev. Rye]

As worrying as Trump's track record with women is, to the extent that 25 women have accused him of sexual misconduct, IT IS ENTIRELY IRRELEVANT TO THE FACTS OF HIS IMPEACHMENT. It has nothing to do with his obstruction of Congress, and, while Abuse of Power is a term thrown about often post MeToo, when the House passed articles of Impeachment and included "abuse of power" among them, that abuse of power is 100% due to his withholding aid from the Ukraine unless the PM announced investigations into Joe Biden and discredited conspiracy theories.

And, as much as I believe those 25 women, given that A) the nature of the crime makes it hard to prove, and B) We still have an assload of shitty things Donald Trump has done worth condemning him for that is proven and part of the public record (see this list of 546 things for a starter, and only 42 of them happened before he took office), I tend to treat their accusations as small potatoes compared to the rest of it. When we've got a lot of verifiable shit that's worth condemning him for, cases of sexual assault that, for better of for much worse, verifiability-wise, boil down to "he said, she said, even though there's 25 shes in the equation" don't exactly rank that high to me.

And to bring the subject back to the OP, I'm not going to do a by-party breakdown, but I will say that this is not likely to happen. As long as Congress favours partisan power plays over the Rule of Law, it's highly unlikely that he's going to be removed from office.

[arewethereyet]

I think that there are too many politicians who sold their honor and ethics either recently or a long time ago. Even if they really think that Trump is guilty they aren't going to do what will piss the President off and most likely cost them their seat. This whole process is bullshit. Too many of them are scared of what Trump's wrath would mean for them, their futures, and their families.

Once that little cartoon turtle, McConnell, said - out loud - that he was not going to be an unbiased juror during the impeachment the door was swung wide open for the rest to follow suit.

Even if it were to magically happen that Trump is found guilty and he is to be removed from office I would expect him to have to be dragged out of the White House kicking and screaming all the way.