Russia and Ukraine

[Rev. Rye]

Back to the topic at hand, it makes perfect sense if you're willing to assume that Putin could eventually (even if it takes a while) decide that it's better to know when to fold. And given that Ukraine recently regained over 2000 square miles of land from Russia, supplying weapons to Ukraine in the hopes they might win is proving to be a sensible strategy. If anyone's irrationally prolonging the war at this point, it's Putin. Ukraine's proving itself to be a more capable fighting force than they expected, the rest of the world's against Russia, and they're currently hoping on a Hail Mary in the form of a 300,000-strong troop surge that's going to spend the next three months stuck in the mud

[The Grand Nudger]

It also makes sense when you realize that if we're living in the upside down where russian -can- win..it's still costly for them. Turns out, for example, that ukraines casualty trackers aren't far off the mark - according to death benefits publicly announced by russia.

[Jehanne]

It also makes sense when you realize that if we're living in the upside down where russian -can- win..it's still costly for them. Turns out, for example, that ukraines casualty trackers aren;t far off the mark - according to death benefits publicly announced by russia.

That's why Russia will win; they will pay whatever price in men and/or materials that it will take. Putin is in no hurry. The last I heard is that Ukraine is beginning to suffer heavy causalities; of course, they want more weapons.

[The Grand Nudger]

You seem to mean to say that russia will pay any cost for a pyrrhic victory. Whether or not that's a win...well.

Personally, just as the west over estimated russias comptence, and russia underestimated ukrainian resistrence- we're now overestimating russian will, and under estimating ukranian agency and resolve.

Here, let me ask a question that hits the right buttons. Did the us win in vietnam, or in afghanistan? That's where russia currently finds itself, except worse...if you can imagine it.

[BrianSoddingBoru4]

It also makes sense when you realize that if we're living in the upside down where russian -can- win..it's still costly for them.  Turns out, for example, that ukraines casualty trackers aren;t far off the mark - according to death benefits publicly announced by russia.

That's why Russia will win; they will pay whatever price in men and/or materials that it will take.  Putin is in no hurry.  The last I heard is that Ukraine is beginning to suffer heavy causalities; of course, they want more weapons.

You seem to think Russia’s resources (and Putin’s political power) are infinite. They are not.

Nudger has asked you to consider this war in light of US involvement in Vietnam. Russia has, in just seven months, lost more combat troops than the US did in Vietnam in twenty years. Russia is sending conscripts to the front lines with no military training. Russia is seeing the largest mass exodus of its citizens in more than a century. Putin’s own people are calling on him to resign. The war has caused global inflation and global food shortages, which are biting Russian citizens as hard - or harder - as anyone else. 

You REALLY believe Russia is going to continue this indefinitely, no matter what?

Boru

[Jehanne]

You seem to mean to say that russia will pay any cost for a pyrrhic victory. Whether or not that's a win...well.

Personally, just as the west over estimated russias comptence, and russia underestimated ukrainian resistrence- we're now overestimating russian will, and under estimating ukranian agency and resolve.

Here, let me ask a question that hits the right buttons. Did the us win in vietnam, or in afghanistan? That's where russia currently finds itself, except worse...if you can imagine it.

The United States lost in Vietnam and Afghanistan, due to the United States making the logical decision to abandon both wars. Likewise, Russia abandoned their efforts in Afghanistan. I do not see them doing the same in Ukraine.

[The Grand Nudger]

You don't think it was lost until the very moment the towel was thrown in? I suppose that helps me make sense of your sentiments, sure.

[BrianSoddingBoru4]

You seem to mean to say that russia will pay any cost for a pyrrhic victory.  Whether or not that's a win...well.

Personally, just as the west over estimated russias comptence, and russia underestimated ukrainian resistrence- we're now overestimating russian will, and under estimating ukranian agency and resolve.  

Here, let me ask a question that hits the right buttons.  Did the us win in vietnam, or in afghanistan?  That's where russia currently finds itself, except worse...if you can imagine it.

The United States lost in Vietnam and Afghanistan, due to the United States making the logical decision to abandon both wars.  Likewise, Russia abandoned their efforts in Afghanistan.  I do not see them doing the same in Ukraine.

The US didn’t lose those wars because they abandoned them. They abandoned them because they lost (‘troop withdrawal’ plays better with the base than ‘got out collective arse handed to us’).

Likewise, Russia has already lost the Ukraine war, by any metric that matters.

Boru

[The Grand Nudger]

That's where the disconnect must be. I see a war that russia has already lost..and insomuch as its committed to send 300k to die, or more equipment to be destroyed (or worse, never used, abandoned on the field by fleeing conscripts)....that's not russia having a fierce will to win, but a fierce will to lose even harder. Arguable, ofc, maybe they aren't actually committed to losing harder at all, and this is just a useful excuse to do a little ethnic cleansing inside russia, since they got slapped trying it in ukraine.

[HappySkeptic]

After Russia gets weakened by losing in Ukraine, will it result in separatist unrest in some parts of the Russian Federation?