Russia and Ukraine

[Thumpalumpacus]

Ukrainian forces have made confirmed advances up to 10 kilometers into Russia's Kursk Oblast amid continued mechanized offensive operations on Russian territory on August 7. Geolocated footage published on August 6 and 7 shows that Ukrainian armored vehicles have advanced to positions along the 38K-030 route about 10 kilometers from the international border.[1] The current confirmed extent and location of Ukrainian advances in Kursk Oblast indicate that Ukrainian forces have penetrated at least two Russian defensive lines and a stronghold.[2] A Russian insider source claimed that Ukrainian forces have seized 45 square kilometers of territory within Kursk Oblast since they launched the operation on August 6, and other Russian sources reported that Ukrainian forces have captured 11 total settlements, including Nikolaevo-Daryino (1.5 kilometers north of the Sumy Oblast border), Darino (three kilometers north of the Sumy Oblast border), and Sverdlikovo (east of the Nikolaevo-Darino-Darino area), and are operating within Lyubimovka (eight kilometers north of the Sumy Oblast border).[3] Russian sources indicated that Ukrainian forces are trying to advance along the 38K-030 Sudzha-Korenovo highway, and a prominent Kremlin-affiliated milblogger claimed that by 1800 local time on August 7 Ukrainian forces had advanced both northwest and southeast along the highway and are now fighting on the outskirts of Korenovo (in the northwest direction) and Sudzha (in the southeast direction).[4] The Russian insider source and several other Russian sources reported that Ukrainian forces fought for and seized the Sudzha checkpoint and the Sudzha gas distribution station (southwest of Sudzha along the 38K-004 highway, 500 meters from the Sumy-Kursk Oblast border).[5] Geolocated imagery posted on August 7 shows that Ukrainian forces captured over 40 Russian prisoners of war (POWs) at the Sudzha checkpoint, and Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty's Russia service posted satellite imagery that shows heavy damage to buildings at the Sudzha checkpoint.[6] Ukrainian military observer Kostyantyn Mashovets reported on August 7 that an unspecified unit of the Chechyna-based 71st Motorized Rifle Regiment (58th Combined Arms Army [CAA], Southern Military District [SMD]) has deployed directly to the Sudzhenskyi Raion—generally consistent with some reports from Ukrainian and Russian sources that social media footage shows Chechen "Akhmat" units in the Sudzha area since over a week ago.[7] Chechen units reportedly suffered very heavy losses in Ukrainian attacks in the Korenovo Raion on August 7.[8]

[...]

Ukrainian forces reportedly used a first-person view (FPV) drone to down a Russian Mi-28 helicopter over Kursk Oblast, indicating that Ukrainian forces continue to successfully adapt their drone capabilities. Sources within Ukraine's Security Service (SBU) told Ukrainian outlet Suspilne in an August 6 article that SBU special forces downed a Russian Mi-28 helicopter over Kursk Oblast "with the help of an FPV drone" for the first time.[21] Suspilne published footage from Ukrainian law enforcement agencies showing a Ukrainian FPV drone striking the rear propeller of the Mi-28 helicopter.[22] A prominent Kremlin-affiliated Russian milblogger acknowledged the Ukrainian FPV drone strike against the Russian Mi-28 but claimed that the helicopter managed to safely land without injuring its crew.[23] Ukrainian and Russian sources stated that Ukrainian forces also downed a Russian Ka-52 helicopter over the Kursk-Sumy Oblast border area on August 6, but did not specify the means that Ukrainian forces used to down it.

https://www.understandingwar.org/backgro...ct-updates

[The Valkyrie]

Ukraine should follow up by using some of their new F16s.

[Thumpalumpacus]

Ukraine should follow up by using some of their new F16s.

There's not enough mass of force for them to be suitable. I think the F-16s will be used to patrol against cruise-missiles, glide-bombs, and the bombers launching them. Or, alternatively, kept in safe harbor until a healthy ground offensive can be launched wherein the F-16s can provide ground-support.

I think the offensive aims in this attack are small enough that risking them isn't warranted.

[The Grand Nudger]

They been spotted down south near kherson..where ukraine is also attacking russian elements on the spits.

[Thumpalumpacus]

I'd originally thought this was a raid or a recon-in-force, but I think I was wrong about that:

Ukraine’s invasion of Russia’s Kursk region, now in its third day, appears to be gaining steam. A source with direct knowledge of the operation told The War Zone that at least 2,000 Ukrainian troops have been deployed with more pouring in every day.

While the Russian Defense Ministry continues to maintain that its troops are holding the line against this offensive, some Russian military war correspondents say Ukrainian forces are fighting 20 miles north of the border, digging in at some locations and building up a logistics network to maintain the flow of personnel and equipment.

[...]

Despite mounting evidence to the contrary, the Russian MoD said they have the situation under control.

“Units of the Sever Group of Forces along with units of the Russian Federal Security Service continue to eliminate armed AFU formations in Sudzha and Korenevo districts of Kursk region immediately adjacent to the border between Russia and Ukraine,” the Russian MoD claimed on Telegram Thursday.

[...]

As the Kursk incursion steadily grows, Ukraine continues attacking neighboring Belgorod Oblast in Russia.

[...]

Ukraine has secured enough territory that its helicopters were seen flying in Kursk, normally something that would be unlikely for normal operations given how vulnerable they are to air defense systems.

9...0

Podlyaka added that “what initially looked like reconnaissance in force, by the second half of the day turned into a full-fledged battle in the area of ​​the settlement of Ivnitsa, where the enemy’s mobile armored group has consolidated its position. The fighting has shifted to the next village of Kromskie Byki. This is already less than 30 km as the crow flies to the Kursk Nuclear Power Plant.”

[...]

Kotenek said Ukraine is pumping reinforcements into Kursk.

“The enemy continues to transfer infantry fighting vehicles, armored personnel carriers, tanks and armored vehicles, including those made in the USA, to the territory of the Russian Federation from the adjacent territory.”

Sudzha “is lost for us as a whole,” the Native Sudzha Telegram channel wrote. “And this is a vital logistics hub. And the enemy is trying to play this advantage. From Sudzha there is also a road to the north, to Lgov. Along which he is also trying to advance.”

“In general, the situation is difficult and continues to worsen, despite the fact that the pace of the Ukrainian Armed Forces’ advance has noticeably slowed,” Native Sudzha wrote. “But this is a consequence of the fact that only the 22nd brigade of the Ukrainian Armed Forces is advancing, and the ‘expansion of success’ reserves have not yet entered the battle.”

https://www.twz.com/air/ukrainian-forces...k-invasion

There's a lot more to read in the article, and plenty of links to videos posted on X as well -- it's worth a full look. From it, I gather that this could, again, be an attack to draw off Russian forces from their offensive operations to the south, or they may have probed and found a weak spot and are trying to cut the logistics between north and south fronts. Or it may be a spoiling attack against a buildup they detected. The fact they're supplying rotary air-ground support implies that Russian air defenses in this area are weak. I still don't think there's enough F-16s to take much advantage of it.

If the Ukrainians can build up the logistics for these forces, that both strengthens their ability to hold in place or even move forward, or at the least aid the withdrawal of these forces once their mission is deemed accomplished. But it's all reading tea-leaves right now.

I definitely like the opsec, as opposed to last year's telegraphing of the offensive. The Ukrainians have learned to mistrust the press. That's good.

[Thumpalumpacus]

Russian convoy is wiped out:

[The Grand Nudger]

Russian planners are in a tough spot. Doctrine says they should reinforce the eastern advance but ukraine is attacking crimea to the south and kursk to the north. They don't have enough troops to respond, they don't have enough transport to supply the troops if they had them, and the remaining broken bodies scattered across the front are exhausted from a failed summer offensive.

[The Grand Nudger]

More proof that we live in the upside down. What passes for russian authority in kursk oblast announces plans to evacuate civilians into occupied ukraine.

[BrianSoddingBoru4]

Boru

[Jackalope]

More proof that we live in the upside down.  What passes for russian authority in kursk oblast announces plans to evacuate civilians into occupied ukraine.

Source?

(Not that it's not completely believable.)