Russia and Ukraine

[Thumpalumpacus]

A consequence for ukraine will be a generational up-armament.  Something like a european north korea.  If domestic production can exceed their cautious goals then maybe something more like a european us.  Either way, ukraines immediate post-war future is in weapons development.

Since the treaty under which they gave up their nukes wasn't worth the paper it was printed on, if I were them, I'd build more nukes. They know how and it's the only deterrant Putin respects.

Are they party to the Non-proliferation Treaty?

[BrianSoddingBoru4]

Since the treaty under which they gave up their nukes wasn't worth the paper it was printed on, if I were them, I'd build more nukes. They know how and it's the only deterrant Putin respects.

Are they party to the Non-proliferation Treaty?

They are. I have a feeling you knew that before you asked.

Boru

[Ravenshire]

Are they party to the Non-proliferation Treaty?

They are. I have a feeling you knew that before you asked.

Boru

Perhaps they should withdraw from said treaty citing denial of entry to NATO and the right to self defence as reasons.

[Thumpalumpacus]

Are they party to the Non-proliferation Treaty?

They are. I have a feeling you knew that before you asked.

Boru

I suspected but didn't know. That's just the first concern that sprang to mind.

[The Grand Nudger]

Since 2014, Ukraine has tried three times to convene consultations with the guarantor states of the Budapest Memorandum. Three times without success. Today Ukraine will do it for the fourth time. I, as President, will do this for the first time. But both Ukraine and I are doing this for the last time. I am initiating consultations in the framework of the Budapest Memorandum. The Minister of Foreign Affairs was commissioned to convene them. If they do not happen again or their results do not guarantee security for our country, Ukraine will have every right to believe that the Budapest Memorandum is not working and all the package decisions of 1994 are in doubt.

-that was in feb of '22. I'd be surprised if the idea hadn't crossed their minds since.

[Thumpalumpacus]

[pocaracas]

Russian forces continue to use chemical weapons in Ukraine in a continued apparent violation of the Chemical Weapons Convention (CWC), to which Russia is a party. The Ukrainian Support Forces Command reported on October 8 that Russian forces continue to use K-51 and RG-VO grenade launchers to launch munitions containing harmful but not necessarily lethal riot control agents (RCA), which are prohibited in combat by the CWC.[24] The Ukrainian Support Forces Command reported that there have been 250 cases of Russian forces using munitions containing unknown types of dangerous chemical agents in Ukraine in September 2024. The Ukrainian Support Forces Command reported that Russian chemical weapons use has been systematic since February 2023 and that as of September 24 Ukraine has recorded Russian forces using munitions equipped with chemical weapons 4,228 times. ISW has consistently reported on increasingly common instances of Russian forces using chemical substances in combat that are banned by the CWC.[25]

https://www.understandingwar.org/backgro...ct-updates

Weren't the russians accusing Ukraine of covertly manufacturing chemical weapons way back in the start of the war?
The Irony!

[Leonardo17]

   The shape of the war might change starting from the New Year. If the Ukrainians get more F-16’s and are permitted to hit deeper into Russian territory the balance on the field is going to start shifting. Even if Trump is reelected, people have taken measures on both sides of the Atlantic so that the Russian Army is going to face an always increasing pressure on the Ukrainian front.


   Yes, the Ukrainians are also tired and all of them have lost a close friend or relative in this war but the Russian situation is far worse. There will be an economic recession after this war so who knows what kind of political action will be undertaken to try to put Russia back on its two feet again.

   + They are running out of military equipment too. Soviet weapons are not inexhaustible either. + They are losing more men on a daily basis than last year. This too is going to become more visible starting from 2025. So it is possible that plan of exhausting the West with a war of attrition will start turning against them in 2025.
 
   https://www.yahoo.com/news/russias-mass-...30853.html
 
   Again, this is also very Hitler-like. I don’t think the Russian elites are aware of what they are doing to their own country.

[Thumpalumpacus]

Weren't the russians accusing Ukraine of covertly manufacturing chemical weapons way back in the start of the war?
The Irony!

More to the point, the hypocrisy ...

[The Grand Nudger]

 Again, this is also very Hitler-like. I don’t think the Russian elites are aware of what they are doing to their own country.

I don't think they care, and I don't think it would matter, at this point, even if they did.  Ukraine has become a war that russia can't afford to lose or win.