Russia and Ukraine

[The Valkyrie]

@Leonardo17

The US will back these European troops if Russia violates the cease fire.

I wouldn’t bet on that.

Boru

I would have believed this if it came from practically any other administration.

This one, I wouldn't believe if they told me water is wet.

[Leonardo17]

I’m not willing to be too pessimistic on these issues. I think D. Trump wants to bring peace to Ukraine and this “Coalition of the willing” wouldn’t just do empty talks in Paris in the COP 26 style.
 
And Russia cannot continue this war indefinitely either.
 
But yes, there has been no sign that the kremlin is willing to take this deal or make any deal with anyone at all.

[BrianSoddingBoru4]

I’m not willing to be too pessimistic on these issues. I think D. Trump wants to bring peace to Ukraine and this “Coalition of the willing” wouldn’t just do empty talks in Paris in the COP 26 style.
 
And Russia cannot continue this war indefinitely either.
 
But yes, there has been no sign that the kremlin is willing to take this deal or make any deal with anyone at all.

If DJT (‘Donald Jessica Trump’) really wanted peace, he’d flood Ukraine with arms and troops and push the Russians back where they belong.

Boru

[awty]

I’m not willing to be too pessimistic on these issues. I think D. Trump wants to bring peace to Ukraine and this “Coalition of the willing” wouldn’t just do empty talks in Paris in the COP 26 style.
 
And Russia cannot continue this war indefinitely either.
 
But yes, there has been no sign that the kremlin is willing to take this deal or make any deal with anyone at all.

Trump wants chaos.  At no time, ever, have I thought he was a man who wanted peace.

[Belacqua]

The French President Macron and the British Premier Keir Starmer both made a speech and there was an American delegation there too. Moscow has not yet shown any sign that it would approve the deal. But there is a drafted peace plan for Ukraine right now.
 
- There will be a cease-fire with borders set at the location of military troops right now (so Russia will keep the 20% of Ukrainian Territory it already took).

- There will be European ground troops in Ukraine (French + British but no German Troops) to guarantee the peace.

- The US will back these European troops if Russia violates the cease fire.

- Moscow is yet to show signs that it is willing to sign that kind of peace deal.

Unfortunately this is all fantasyland.
From the beginning Russia has made it clear it wants a de-militarized Ukraine. If there are British and French troops in Ukraine, there is no ceasefire. 
Starmer and Macron know this; they know the plan is hot air. But they want to keep the war going.

[Belacqua]

I’m not willing to be too pessimistic on these issues. I think D. Trump wants to bring peace to Ukraine and this “Coalition of the willing” wouldn’t just do empty talks in Paris in the COP 26 style.
 
And Russia cannot continue this war indefinitely either.
 
But yes, there has been no sign that the kremlin is willing to take this deal or make any deal with anyone at all.

I think that if Trump wants peace, it's simply because he sees the whole thing as not worth the effort. He sees it more as a deal that's not working out for him, and therefore it's time to cut his losses and leave the aftermath with someone else. It's not due to any love of peace on his part. 

As for Russia not continuing -- that's true, no country can go on forever. However it appears that some people's current strategy is to keep the war going until the Russian economy collapses. This is also wishful thinking.

The new head of Zelensky's presidential office, who was until recently the chief spy, Kyrylo Budanov, said in a recent interview that if we're waiting for Russia's economy to collapse we'll be waiting a very long time. I suspect that someone in his position has pretty decent intelligence sources, and can't base his strategy on wishful thinking, as some do. 

There is really no motivation for Russia to make a peace deal now. It's been proven that the US and its vassals don't keep their deals. Russia continues to gain territory. (It's taking over the region with enormous manganese deposits now, which are worth billions if not trillions.) Ukraine is completely out of resources and can only continue with handouts. The EU is divided and not able to help that much. Starmer and Macron have offered troops, but, as I say, this is political theater. Germany and Italy won't do so. Merz recently asked Zelensky to take back all the Ukrainian 18- to 23-year-olds who have fled Ukraine for Germany. That's a lot of refugees for Germany to assimilate, and if the war is going to continue for two years (as Victoria Nuland desires) Zelensky is going to need those kids as cannon fodder.

[Fake Messiah]

I think that if Trump wants peace, it's simply because he sees the whole thing as not worth the effort.

Trump wants peace because he is stupid to think that Putin can be negotiated with.

it appears that some people's current strategy is to keep the war going until the Russian economy collapses.

LoL yeah, this whole thing was a ploy to lure Russia into a war to weaken its economy. Russia is the real victim in all of this.

There is really no motivation for Russia to make a peace deal now.

Just like there was no motivation for Hitler to make peace because insane megalomaniacs think the world belongs to them.

Russia continues to gain territory. (It's taking over the region with enormous manganese deposits now, which are worth billions if not trillions.)

Dream on. The Russian “imperial revival” is dead, buried in Ukraine. The 3-day war became a 4-years humiliation with 1.2 million sustained casualties. Russian weapons and military once feared, just noisy bang bangs. Red lines crossed weekly, nothing happens. Russia is now bombed daily by Ukraine. Friends quietly backing away or lost. Sanctions biting, economy bleeding. Black Sea dominance gone. Countries literally seizing Russian ships.

[The Grand Nudger]

So tedious. Putin could end his elective war at any time. Putin wants the war to continue. It's certainly Putins strategy to keep the war going as the russian economy collapses.

[Thumpalumpacus]

It doesn't require economic collapse to make the economic burdens on the average Russian heavy enough to turn them even further against the war. Inflation, interest rates, fuel prices, all rising, and all biting the non-oligarchs deeply. The only thing the oligarchs need to worry about is the odd window if they speak out of turn. Meanwhile, more than 100 million Russians have to deal with maintaining a household in an environment that's gotten a lot more expensive.

[The Grand Nudger]

They're in a weird place too. There was disruption as the invasion went tits up - but they've since figured out a way to maintain their revenue streams within the war environment..and it would probably be a pain in the ass to retool again so soon.