Trump's Base is Possibly Growing

[The Grand Nudger]

What don't you understand about the fact of nativist latino republicans?  No one's kicking them out of anything you nutball. I'm not even in your silly party....lol?

[Figbash]

Not surprising.
We're talking about a group that is majority Catholic and has a largely "machismo" (read: misogynistic) culture that leans conservative on abortion, gay rights, women's rights, etc.

[Yonadav]

What don't you understand about the fact of nativist latino republicans?  No one's kicking them out of anything you nutball. I'm not even in your silly party....lol?

Rather than be alarmed that Latinos are becoming increasingly supportive of Trump, you feel validated by it.

---

Not surprising.
We're talking about a group that is majority Catholic and has a largely "machismo" (read: misogynistic) culture that leans conservative on abortion, gay rights, women's rights, etc.

And yet 70 to 80% of them tended to vote Democrat. They aren't exactly being pulled into the Republican party right now. I think they are being pushed.

[The Grand Nudger]

The three strongest indicators of whether someone in the demographic is in the tank for the trumpster are; native born, male, cuban heritage.  This is not new. This has been a generational trend.

-This- is the group that broke for him at the polls by more than 50%.  Overall, only a quarter of latinos say they would vote for the president even as a larger number say they think he's doing a good job.  What the data suggests is that micro targeting this demographic would get more people to the polls in florida - where there are four times as many non-mexican latinos...than it would in california..where there are thirty times mas many latinos of mexican heritage.

Nativist lines on immigration have, ironically, been traditionally appealing to that demographic ever since the mariel boatlift, lol.

[Yonadav]

The three strongest indicators of whether someone in the demographic is in the tank for the trumpster are; native born, male, cuban heritage.  This is not new.  This has been a generational trend.

-This- is the group that broke for him at the polls by more than 50%.  Overall, only a quarter of latinos say they would vote for the president even as a larger number say they think he's doing a good job.  What the data suggests is that micro targeting this demographic would get more people to the polls in florida - where there are four times as many non-mexican latinos...than it would in california..where there are thirty times mas many latinos of mexican heritage.

And again, we aren't talking about Cubans in Florida. We aren't talking about Latinos who already voted for Trump in 2016. We are talking about what seems to be growing support for him among Hispanics. We've been over this core concept repeatedly.

[The Grand Nudger]

What don't you understand about the fact of nativist latino republicans?  No one's kicking them out of anything you nutball. I'm not even in your silly party....lol?

Rather than be alarmed that Latinos are becoming increasingly supportive of Trump, you feel validated by it.

I'm entirely unsurprised by it, I grew up in florida.  I could have told you that a significant portion of latinos in florida were trumpists decades before trump was a thing. That was the whole point of the neocon push into florida.

Your link refers to florida, the data is representative of the floridian contribution to the latino vote. Cubans in florida broke for trump by over 50%. Since florida is a swing state, and since cuban heritage is the majority contributor to the latino vote in florida (unlike literally every other state), and since native born latinos are the majority in florida - an appeal to nativist themes is likely to be as successful as it's ever been in that (growing) demographic.

[Yonadav]

Rather than be alarmed that Latinos are becoming increasingly supportive of Trump, you feel validated by it.

I'm entirely unsurprised by it, I grew up in florida.  I could have told you that a significant portion of latinos in florida were trumpists decades before trump was a thing.  That was the whole point of the neocon push into florida.

And everyone already knew about the Republican Cubans in Florida, and I've told you that repeatedly. 

Core concept....Again: Some indications are that support for Trump is significantly on the rise among Hispanics, 70 to 80% of whom have tended to vote Democrat.

[The Grand Nudger]

Good, glad we've got that settled and everyone knows about the cuban contribution to the latino vote as a demographic inversion to national averages in a swing state with significant republican outreach going back decades.  


I think that the best d's can hope for is that the r's focus on the wrong states...which is pretty much any and every state aside from florida.  Their messaging appeals to a known demographic subset of latinos.  Nativist latinos, latinos with core republican values, and..yes, white adjacent latinos like floridian cubans.  Playing that in california, for example, will be a flop because their demographic subsets are directly inverse to those that the message has been shown to appeal to - and even more importantly, how that appeal manifests itself as votes rather than people finding some reason to think that the president is doing something well. 

The worst, is that the r's campaign is exactly as successful as the data would suggest, focused on those demographic subsets..and by extension a swing state.  R's are playing the electoral college game, they can't win the pop anymore. Motivating nativists to the polls for maximum political impact is kindof their bread and butter.

[Aoi Magi]

I don't think there's a singular reason for this, stupidity, misinformation, us-vs-them mentality, attempt to be on the "winning" side..., but I think the most important contributing factor here is that, people who are oppressed will often seek a power figure who can enable them to become the oppressor for a change, and Trump is a great enabler in this case, he projects power and says the things people want to hear!

[The Grand Nudger]

Native born latinos are more likely to think of themselves as "us" than "them" than other subsets within the group.